Brasília, March 8, 2004 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - The constant improvement in the trade surplus during the first two months of the year led the market to bet on a US$ 22 billion surplus this year, as against last week's estimate of US$ 21 billion. As a result, the forecast for the anual current account deficit, which was for US$ 2 billion, is now down to only US$ 500 million.

These projections are revealed in the Focus Bulletin, released by the Central Bank, with the results of a weekly survey of the country's major financial consultants and market analysts. The survey maintains the prediction for February's inflation at 0.70% and bets on a decline to 0.43% this month, in terms of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA). Inflation for the year should come to 6% (last week the forecast was for 6.1%). Higher, therefore, than the official target of 5.5%.

Maintaining the projected year-end exchange rate at R$ 3.10, the Focus Bulletin estimates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 3.57%, down from last week's 3.60%. Consequently, the ratio between net government debt and the GDP should be higher, 56.50%, than the 56.20% predicted last week.

The market is also less sanguine about a reduction in the prime interest rate (Selic), which has been maintained at an annual rate of 16.50% since last December. In view of the cautious stance of the Central Bank, the median expectation of those who were interviewed rose a notch, from 16.30%, last week, to 16.32%, for the outcome of the meeting that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will hold next week. (DAS)