Brasília, November 11, 2003 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - The decline in the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in October, to a level well below what the market was expecting, led the country's chief financial consultants to revise their projections for inflation this year.

The Focus Bulletin, released on Monday (10) by the Central Bank (BC), indicates an expectation for the IPCA this year to fall to 9.57%, as against 9.69% in last week's poll. This was also the case for other price indexes, in wholesale and retail trade, as well as in administered prices (fuel, electricity, telephone services, and others), expected to decline to 13.60% for the year, as against the 13.85% forecast last week.

As for the surplus in the trade balance, the projection rose from US$ 22.3 billion in last week's bulletin to US$ 23 billion this week. Market confidence in a greater surplus in current accounts also grew, from US$ 1.7 billion to US$ 1.9 billion. For growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2003, the forecast of 0.66% remained unchanged, as did that of foreign direct investments for the year: US$ 9 billion.

The Focus Bulletin also foresees the year ending with an exchange rate of R$ 3.00 to the dollar and a 17.32% annual prime interest rate (Selic), as against last week's prediction of 17.25%. (DAS)