Brasília, September 22, 2003 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - A weekly survey of 100 financial institutions conducted by the Central Bank (BC) projects growth of 0.83% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2003. The estimates in last week's survey were for 0.94%. This is the seventh consecutive week in which these estimates were lowered. For 2004, the survey continues to bet on 3% growth in the GDP, as it has for 39 weeks.

Projections for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), on which the government's inflation targets are based, also registered a decline, from 9.61% last week to 9.59% in this week's survey, with respect to 2003. For 2004, market forecasts were reduced from 6.20% to 6.10%. The official inflation target for this year is 8.5%, and, for 2004, 5.5%.

In the opinion of the five financial institutions with the greatest predictive success among those polled for the survey, the IPCA forecast for 2003 fell from 9.63% to 9.59% from last week to this. For next year, these institutions continue to predict an index of 6%.

The estimate for the annual prime interest rate (Selic) at year's end was lowered from 18% last week to 17.83% this week. The current rate stands at 20%. For 2004, the survey forecasts a 15% Selic, for the third consecutive week.

For the third week in a row, as well, there was an increase in the predicted ratio between net government debt and the GDP for this year. Since last week, the predicted ratio rose from 55.50% to 55.90%. According to the BC's last monthly report, issued in July, the debt/GDP ratio stood at 57%. For 2004 the market expects this ratio to amount to 54%.

As for foreign direct investments this year, the survey continues to forecast a volume of US$ 8.5 billion, for the second week in a row.

With respect to this year's trade balance surplus, the market is betting on a figure of US$ 20.40 billion, compared with last week's US$ 20 billion. (DAS)