Brasília, 7/15/2003 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - Following a five-week period of falling estimates, market projections for inflation have now risen. The latest weekly survey by the Central Bank, known as the Focus survey, shows that market investor and analyst estimates for inflation for the period from this month to June 2004, as measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), have now risen from 6.75% to 7.16%.

However, estimates of 2003 end-of-the-year inflation fell for the sixth consecutive week, going from 11.02% to 10.81%. There was also a drop in market estimates for price increases in sectors controlled by the government or under contract, going from 14.85% to 14.60%.

With regard to interest rates, market estimates were down from 21% to 20.5%.

As for the dollar, the market expects it to be R$3.20 at the end of the year, with the debt/GDP ratio at 54.7%, down from 54.9%.

Market estimates for the current account deficit situation improved, projecting a drop from US$3.50 billion, to US$3.45 billion. Estimates for the trade surplus remained stable at US$17 billion. But estimates for direct foreign investments fell slightly from US$10 billion, to US$9.7 billion. (AB)