São Paulo, January 6, 2004 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - 2003 ended with historical records in the trade balance: record exports of US$ 73.1 billion and the largest surplus ever registered by the country, US$ 24.8 billion. Imports, however, grew only a little over 2%, attaining only US$ 48.2 billion. This year, however, the situation may be reversed, in the view of specialists. Both the government and analysts expect that purchases from abroad will increase by up to 20%, while exports should increase by a little over 10%, in the most optimistic forecasts.

The chief reasons for the change in outlook are the expectation of economic growth and the appreciation of the real. "In 2003 we had only the depreciation of the dollar, and this factor alone is not capable of inducing import growth, as became clear," Nelson Carneiro, economic analyst with the Global Invest consulting firm, in Curitiba, told the ANBA (Brazil-Arab News Agency). (DAS)