São Paulo, 12/17/2003 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - A survey by the Brazilian Federation of Banks (Febraban) of 53 banking institutions during the second week of December, found that expectations for GDP growth next year are at 3.55%, up from a survey in November when the forecast was for growth of 3.30%.

The Febraban survey also found expectations of an expansion of credit in 2004 of 15.85%, which works out to a real increase of 9.73%, because inflation, as measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), should be 6.12%. The projected expansion of credit takes into consideration an expected basic interest rate (Selic) averaging 15% next year, and closing out the year at 13.91%.

As for foreign investments, the Febraban December survey found that expectations were for a total of US$12.29 billion in 2004, up from US$11.98 billion in its last survey in November. Those interviewed were optimistic about a further fall in the Brazil risk premium, to 449 by December 2004, which will increase the confidence of investors (in the November survey, the forecast was for the risk premium to be 516 in December 2004). (AB)