IGP-M should end the year below 10%, FGV estimates

18/11/2003 - 20h26

Rio, November 19, 2003 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - Inflation measured by the General Market Price Index (IGP-M) has been exhibiting stability in recent results, and, if there is no turbulence between now and the end of the year, the forecast is for the rate to end 2003 with a cumulative variation of less than 10%. This opinion was expressed on Tuesday (18), in Rio, by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation's (FGV) coordinator of Indexes, André Furtado Braz.

For Braz, the tendency is for the IGP-M - which rose only 0.38% in the second preliminary estimate for November, 0.01% more than the 0.37% verified in the second preliminary estimate for October - to close out the month of November with an increase inferior to 0.50%.

"In the case of wholesale prices, for which the IPA (Wholesale Price Index) registered a 0.43% rise in the second preliminary estimate for November, there are agricultural products for which the rate fell from 1.79% to 0.17%, counterbalancing increases observed for some industrial products, the rise in which was due partly to the reheating of the economy and partly to pressures from the growth in demand that is common at this time of year.

This equilibrium, with increases on one side and decreases on the other, should keep the rate at this level of 0.30%-0.40% until the end of the year. Since retail prices, measured by the IPC (Consumer Price Index), have not been presenting big surprises, a tendency which should also continue for the rest of the year, it is possible, indeed, to predict that the IGP-M will end the year below or around 10%," Braz affirms. (DAS)