Brasília, 4/27/2004 (Agência Brasil) - The Central Bank's latest weekly market survey, Focus, found the market slightly less optimistic with regard to inflation. Thus market estimates have begun to distance themselves from the government forecast of cumulative year-end inflation of 5.5% for 2004.

According to the latest Focus survey, the market is now forecasting IPCA-based inflation of 6.17% for the year, up from 6.14% a week ago. However, the forecast for the month of April remains steady at 0.48% (the IPCA rose 0.47% in March). There is a forecast of 0.40% for next month.

The rest of the survey estimates remain stable. The markets projects an exchange rate at year-end at R$3.05, and the basic interest rate (Selic) at 14% (it is now at 16%). The market estimate for GDP growth is 3.5%, with the debt/GDP ratio at 56.5%

The Focue survey found that the market is also forecasting a trade surplus of US$25 billion, direct foreign investments totalling US$13 billion and a current account surplus of US$1.2 billion.

Translator: Allen Bennett