Brasília, March 15, 2004 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - The expectations of the financial market for this year's inflation yielded slightly, according to the Focus Bulletin issued today by the Central Bank. The weekly survey of nearly a hundred consultants and market analysts indicates that the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should end the year at 5.95%. The forecast last week was for 6%. The most recent prediction, therefore, is closer to the government's official target of 5.5% for the annual rate of inflation.
It should be noted, however, that the other three inflation indexes covered in the survey were adjusted upwards. The General Price Index - Market (IGP-M) rose from 6.75% to 7.17%; the General Price Index - Domestic Supply (IGP-DI) went up from 6.48% to 7.34%; and the Consumer Price Index (IPC) compiled by the Economic Research Institute Foundation (Fipe), of the University of São Paulo, evolved from 5.51% to 5.52%.
This week's survey stresses the analysts' confidence in an increasingly larger trade surplus. When the year began, the forecast was for it to attain US$ 19.15 billion, as against last year's US$ 24.8 billion. The trade balance, however, has been performing at the same rhythm as in 2003, with constant increases in the estimated surplus, which was US$ 22 billion last week and now stands at US$ 23 billion. This raising of predictions contributed to the elimination of the expected current transactions deficit, which stood at US$ 3.50 billion in the forecasts made at the beginning of January.
On the other hand, prospects for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have been falling for three weeks, from 3.68% three weeks ago to the current 3.56%, in line with the drop anticipated by the Applied Economics Research Institute (Ipea), announced last week.
The market is also less optimistic about the fall in the prime interest rate (Selic). The prediction last week was for the rate to drop to 13.81%. The current prediction is for a smaller reduction, to 13.84%, in a context in which the exchange rate is expected to end the year at R$ 3.05, as against last week's prediction of R$ 3.10. (DAS)
