Brasília, November 18, 2003 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - Expectations for inflation this year were lowered again slightly, according to the results of a market poll published on Monday (17) in the Central Bank's (BC) Focus Bulletin. Estimates of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which serves as a parameter for government rates, fell for the third straight week and currently stand at 9.40%, as against the 9.57% in last week's forecast.

There was also a small reduction in the increase financial consultants foresee in administered prices (fuel, electricity, telephone services, and others). Their forecast, which was 13.80% a month ago, fell to 13.60% last week, and now stands at 13.56%.

For 2004, however, the market continues to predict increases of 6% in the IPCA and 8% in administered prices. Other indexes of inflation are expected to end the year below the government's 8.5% target for inflation in 2003. The forecasts are for 7.64% in the IGP-DI, 8.49% for the IGP-M, and 8.36% for the IPC-Fipe.

The survey also reveals rises in projections for the trade balance surplus (from US$ 23 billion to US$ 23.13 billion), the current accounts surplus (from US$ 1.90 billion to US$ 2.35 billion), and the rate of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), from 0.66% to 0.68%.

Median market expectations continue to point to net government debt equal to 55.70% of the GDP, in a setting in which the exchange rate should end the year with the dollar worth R$ 3.00 and the annual prime interest rate should amount to 17.35%, as against the 17.32% predicted last week. (DAS)