Brasília, October 14, 2003 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - Inflation should amount to 9.68% in 2003. This is the forecast made in the Focus Bulletin, published by the Central Bank and based on a survey of financial consultants and institutions. Compared with last week, this expectation remained unchanged. However, with regard to next year, the forecast for inflation fell slightly, from 6.20% last week to 6.10%.

In the short run, on the other hand, the market believes that this month's inflation, as measured by the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) will surpass its initial estimate of 0.53%, made last week, and finish the month at 0.55%. The estimate for November is 0.50%.

Expectations are very good in relation to the trade balance, which should close the year with a US$ 21.4 billion surplus; foreign direct investments should rise from US$ 8.65 billion to US$ 9 billion; the exchange rate should stand at R$ 3.05 per dollar at the end of the year, as against the R$ 3.10 projected last week; and, for the first time since 1992, current accounts should close the year in the black, with a US$ 500 million surplus. On the negative side, the ratio between net government debt and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should increase from 56.46% to 57%, according to market expectations. (DAS)