Brasília, September 1, 2003 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - The forecast for inflation this year, as measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) fell a little more this week, according to the Central Bank's (BC) Focus bulletin. The estimate, which was 9.63% last week, fell to 9.57%, accompanying a declining trend initiated 13 weeks ago. For the General Market Price Index (IGP-M), the forecast is for an increase, from 7.75% eight days ago to 8.06%, the same level as last month.

With respect to readjustments in public utility rates (administered prices), expectations were lowered from 13.30% to 13%, below the estimate presented in the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which pointed to a cumulative annual increase of 14% in the prices of gasoline, cooking gas, electric energy, and telephone services.

For the trade balance surplus, the survey released by the BC indicates a result of US$ 18.4 billion, as against US$ 18 billion in last week's bulletin. However, optimism declined as far as growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is concerned, from 1.40% to 1.36%. Predictions of the prime interest rate (Selic) in December went from 19% to 18.08% on an annualized basis. (DAS)