Brasília, 8/5/2003 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - Market estimates of this year's inflation have fallen a little more, according to the Central Bank's latest weekly market survey, Focus. Market estimates are now for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) to rise 10.02% this year, down from 10.13% in the prior survey, and down significantly from a month ago when it was 11.02%.

Focus surveys financial institutions and consultancy firms. The latest survey found that market estimates for the basic interest rate at the end of the year are now at 20% (which means it has to come down an additional 4.5 percentage points [the Selic, as it is known, is now at 24.5%]).

An estimate that is now rising is the exchange rate, up from R$3.15 to R$3.18.

Market estimates on direct foreign investments were stable at US$9 billion.

There was a small variation in market estimates for the trade surplus, rising from US$17.4 billion to US$17.5 billion. As a result, the estimated net debt of the government as a percentage of GDP fell from 54.95% to 54.90%. As for GDP growth, estimates rose slightly from 1.55% to 1.56% (for the sake of comparison, a month ago it was 1.70%). Market estimates for GDP growth next year remain stable at 3%. (AB)