Brasília, 7/1/2003 (Agência Brasil - ABr) - If the exchange rate remains where it is today - at around R$2.88 - the result will be a drop in exports and an increase in imports, says minister of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade, Luiz Fernando Furlan. The minister explains that with the 30% increase in exports during the first half of the year (compared to last year), expectations are much lower for the rest of the year.

"Our goal this year is to do a little better than we did last year. That is, we had a second half trade surplus of US$5.9 billion in 2002, and this year we want one of US$6 billion," said Furlan.

Furlan pointed out that some export goods depend on a strong dollar (and weaker Brazilian currency) to achieve competitivity abroad. Thus, exports of soybeans and sugar are expected to fall over the next six months.

"If this were a soccer game, it is as if we were ahead 1-0 in the second half and playing defensively to hold on to our lead. Any goals we make now will be profit. I believe we will achieve our objectives in the second half," said the minister.

Furlan said the only risks to Brazil's export performance are: a strong downturn internationally, especially in the United States, and a further weakening of the dollar against Brazilian currency, which will have an adverse effect on farm exports. (AB)