Gilberto Costa Reporter Agência Brasil
Brasília – A recent report from the United National Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), notes that Germany and Japan have sharply increased exports. The report goes on to say that the economic crisis in the more industrialized nations, characterized by low growth and cuts in public spending, especially in the United States and Europe, may result in profound changes in the landscape of international trade and commerce. Especially at risk are exports from emerging countries with consequences in North-South international trade as more developed economies seek to buy less and sell more.
As the dollar weakens, and their own currencies strengthen, emerging countries will find it easier to import. The downside is that imports from the developed world will substitute local goods, especially manufactured items, and that creates the danger of de-industrialization, that is, not losses in the manufacturing sector, but losses of segments of the manufacturing sector itself. At the same time that a country like Brazil imports more industrialized goods, it exports less goods with higher aggregate value. [note: by crosschecking information in monthly reports by the government statistical bureau on industrial activity for the period January to July of this year (“PIM-IBGE”) and the Foreign Trade Studies Center Foundation (“Funcex”), it is possible to see that imports outperformed domestic output in 18 out of 20 manufacturing segments. A concrete example of the problem can be seen in footwear where domestic production rose 7.4%, while imports jumped over 31% - during the period January to June]
At the same time, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal), says that there will certainly be consequences from the downturn in developed economies. According to Carlos Mussi, at the Cepal office in São Paulo, it is possible that in the near future South-South trade will be bigger than North-North. The motors of the world economy will depend more and more on dynamic growth in emerging markets, along with commerce and investments in the South-South sphere, he says. At the same time, economies such as China and Mexico, heavily dependent on trade with the so-called “central economies,” will face difficulties. “A country like Mexico, highly dependent on commercial relations with the United States will have to shift. Will it be able to diversify in time?” asks Mussi.
Allen Bennett – translator/editor The News in English - content modified - contains additional information
Link - Crise dos países desenvolvidos pode afetar exportações de produtos dos emergentes
